The CD-4 Problem

Anyone who listens to (or reads) me knows that I am down on our chances for winning CD-4 this year. Certain folks argue with me that my claim that Congresswoman Musgrave has put the right spin on her efforts this session is silly. They claim that no one is paying attention. I think that's the problem. I pay attention to politics and I know just how useless Musgrave is, but they don't. They do pay attention to newspaper, and newspapers pay attention to press releases...

But the numbers are what they are. A Democrat is going to lose the eastern plains by about 8-10K votes, and then win Larimer by about that many votes, then Boulder by a couple thousand. Meaning that when you start counting in Weld, you're up by maybe 1,500 votes, so you have to lose Weld by less than that many votes. Example: Angie lost the election by 6K votes, and lost Weld by around 7,500, and Angie did awesome in Larimer and lost in a fairly positive manner on the plains.

Angie was aided by the fact that a lot of folks in agriculture, predominately on the plains, were dissatisfied with Musgrave's focus on gays, and her refusal to help them directly (vis. voting against Farm Bills, etc). So Angie picked up some votes, maybe a couple thousand, out east.

But, with PR moves as she's made lately, beginning with Pinon Canyon, continuing with her PR focusing on getting the Arkansas Valley funding for a water conduit authorized under JFK, and, finally, fantastic PR moves working to override a possible veto of the current farm bill, those eastern Colorado votes are out of play. Those voters don't pay attention to the Congressional Record, but they know it when someone tries to get Farm Bills though.

And that means that to get close Betsy Markey is going to have to do really well in Weld. Really well, like, win Weld.

And the best she seems to have is a campaign manager who believes that laying low is the proper strategy, a former boss (what an asshole!) who is cozying up to her opponent, and a bunch of supporters who think that they can win Weld because Ritter just did.

Betsy, you know I love ya, but I miss the days when Angie was everywhere, and when Eric got coverage for loose rhetoric that gave conservative voters a reason to leave Musgrave. You gotta get out and get in this fight before it's over. A couple parades this summer ain't gonna do it. And you gotta find some better folks to listen to - your close Greeley confidants are off their rockers.